An ongoing snapshot of the national and world ecomony. Designed for the busy professional who requires more than soundbites and taglines, but does not have time to read it all.
1) raise the retirement age for today's teens and toddlers up to 69. Longevity is increasing at such a rate that it will still be a great deal for them. 2) raise the income ceiling, the amount of income to which social security taxes are applied. I don't favor removing the ceiling altogether because it violates my sense of fairness. This fundraising is not for the national defense but to cushion the later years. There should be a limit as to how much someone is asked to subsidize other people's retirements. 3) Trim the increase that Social Security recipients receive each year. Currently they get the COLA adjustment, but they got an extra dollop last year because the inflation rate was too low. An index that trails inflation by a fraction would minimize the impact but could save substantial sums over time. Of course, if the Medicare costs for Part B and D go way up as they are supposed to that would be an unfair double whammy on the elderly. This would need to be part of the calculus on any COLA fix.
The ideas above all make sense, but they make even better sense when combined for the simple reason that it becomes shared sacrifice: the younger generations see a delayed retirement age, the middle generations see a slightly higher tax on wages and the older generation sees some limits on the rate of increase in payments. If everyone takes a piece of this responsibility it becomes less of a burden on everyone.
Siegel: Inflation is going to be under control this year and probably into 2011. However, we will have an upward tilt to inflation, which means the longer-run trends point to a 2%-to-4% range of inflation rather than zero to two, which unofficially is what most central banks and the Fed have targeted.
The scaremongers, who worry that the ton of money the Fed created to fight off the crisis is going to fuel the next [period of] inflation, are wrong.
Knowledge@Wharton: But the 2%-to-4% range is standard over the long run, right?
Siegel: It's not. I remember when I was studying economics, we talked about what a victory it would be if we could get down to between 2% and 4%. We've been spoiled with very low rates. Most central banks use zero to two. They come closer to two.
We'll move closer to between 2% and 4%, particularly in the United States, given the large deficits that we have and the liquidity that was created. But just as Bernanke acted very responsibly in providing the liquidity necessary to prevent [a repeat of] the Great Depression, he is also an excellent enough economist to know that money is what fuels inflation. The Fed is really solely responsible for inflation. He will not let it go above five, and probably not even four. He will raise interest rates to whatever level is necessary if inflation starts running into the mid-single digits or higher.
Knowledge@Wharton: When we talk about inflation, we also often talk about commodities. There has been a pretty good run in some commodities, especially gold. What do you see happening there?
Siegel: The commodities cycle has followed the world economy. It had hit its low very close to the same time the stock market did. Now that the world markets have recovered, we see oil has recovered. I would love to see it in the 70-to-80 range.
Commodities are fully priced. Gold ... is priced for an inflationary scenario that is much worse than will be realized. Gold is a risky investment now.... That is not going to be a good investment throughout 2010 and the longer term.
To Fill Vacancies, Mall Owners Test Experimental Waters - NYTimes.com: "Greg Maloney, president and chief executive of the retail group at Jones Lang LaSalle, a real estate brokerage firm, said that to fill empty anchor spaces, landlords were getting creative and were considering bringing in grocery stores, medical facilities, dance studios and even community or technical colleges.
“I think you’re going to see a lot more of that,” Mr. Maloney said.
Several schools — like New River Community College in Virginia and Hagerstown Community College’s Center for Continuing Education in Maryland — have been holding classes in malls for years. But industry professionals say the trend is likely to accelerate.
With Americans buying less, many chains are asking mall owners for rent reductions, and are sometimes receiving them. That adds to the malls’ financial woes.
One of the nation’s largest mall owners, General Growth Properties, is laden with more than $25 billion of debt, has missed payment deadlines on its bonds, and is trying to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection.
Landlords are willing to lower rents for their best retailers — but only those that can prove financial distress. The landlords may not be able to play hardball for long, though. More major chains are expected to file for bankruptcy"
WSJ.com: "WASHINGTON -- Cyberspies have penetrated the U.S. electrical grid and left behind software programs that could be used to disrupt the system, according to current and former national-security officials.
The spies came from China, Russia and other countries, these officials said, and were believed to be on a mission to navigate the U.S. electrical system and its controls. The intruders haven't sought to damage the power grid or other key infrastructure, but officials warned they could try during a crisis or war.
'The Chinese have attempted to map our infrastructure, such as the electrical grid,' said a senior intelligence official. 'So have the Russians.'
The espionage appeared pervasive across the U.S. and doesn't target a particular company or region, said a former Department of Homeland Security official. 'There are intrusions, and they are growing,' the former official said, referring to electrical systems. 'There were a lot last year.' Discuss
Many of the intrusions were detected not by the companies in charge of the infrastructure but by U.S. intelligence agencies, officials said. Intelligence officials worry about cyber attackers taking control of electrical facilities, a nuclear power plant or financial networks via the Internet."
From AIG's website, a whitepaper on the Systemic Risk in the insurance industry. Certainly, AIG is wrapping themselves in the cover of their industry by speaking of the industry's Systemic Risk. But whether it is the entire industry at risk or just AIG and some others, the acknowledgment of systemic risk in such a direct way is striking:
"A significant rise in surrender rates – inspired by consumers’ needs for cash or because of rumored or real failure of insurance companies – could be disastrous. Because of widespread loss of liquidity, the industry would struggle to raise adequate cash to meet surrender requests. A “run on the bank” in the life and retirement business would have sweeping impacts across the economy in the U.S. In countries around the world with higher savings rates than the U.S., the failure of insurance companies like AIG would be a catastrophe."
FT.com / China - China lost billions in diversity drive: "China has lost tens of billions of dollars of its foreign exchange reserves through a poorly timed diversification into global equities just before world markets collapsed last year.
The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the opaque manager of nearly $2,000bn (€1,547bn, £1,429bn) of reserves, started making huge bets on global stocks early in 2007 and continued this strategy at least until the collapse of the US mortgage finance providers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in July 2008, according to analysts and people familiar with Safe’s operations.
By that point Safe had moved well over 15 per cent of the country’s $1,800bn reserves into riskier assets, including equities and corporate bonds, according to people familiar with its strategy.
Safe never discloses its holdings except to the top Chinese leadership so it is impossible to know exactly how much it has lost from diversifying before markets crashed.
But judging from the subsequent fall in global stock prices and a conservative estimate that Safe held about $160bn worth of overseas equities, Chinese"
"For those who like visual representation, like me, this graphic from the Washington Post may help you understand the architecture of the stimulus bill (Click here for the full graphic)."
Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items - washingtonpost.com: "'In China, during the boom, there was huge over-capacity in various lines of activity ranging from shoes and clothing, light manufacturing -- all of that stuff. So that is why from the perspective of U.S. companies, we have found it so important to be on the innovative edge,' said Harvard business professor Joseph L. Bower. 'The only way to create value is to be on the innovative, high-tech, fashion-forward side.'
If the credit crunch in the United States persists, 'companies will find it difficult to invest in technology for a while, and then once the financial markets are back on track and demand recovers, companies will find themselves in difficult position,' Comin said. 'Productivity growth will be declining for a while. They will have a hard time catching up."
PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "The simplicity of the solution, however, is not easily achieved once deflationary momentum takes hold. Animal spirits, once dampened, are hard to reignite; “fear of fear itself” dominates greed. Under such circumstances, the benevolent hand of government is required and Keynes is reincarnated in an attempt to plug the dike via fiscal spending and imaginative monetary policies that support asset prices. PIMCO has recently been contracted to assist in several publically announced programs which have helped in that effort: the CPFF, which has benefitted commercial paper yields, and the Federal Reserve’s purchase program for agency-backed mortgage loans, which has lowered 30-year mortgage rates to 4.5% and fostered the affordability of new and secondary housing prices. These two programs, in our opinion, have been the major policy successes to date – not because of our involvement – but because they have supported and increased asset prices whose decline has been the major deflationary thrust behind the real economy. Stop asset prices from going down and with a 12-month lag, unemployment will stop going up, and President Obama’s targeted three million new jobs will have a fighting chance of being achieved."
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide: "“The economic setback is still in its early stages, and any further decline in housing prices could accelerate the downturn, intensifying the pernicious feedback loop and possibly leading to a second wave in the financial crisis in the next 6-12 months,” Ozeki wrote. “In order to overcome that second wave, governments worldwide would have to spend vast quantities of fiscal funds. The resulting erosion in their finances would increase the risk of dangerous side effects.”"
Zero Hedge: How The World Almost Came To An End At 2PM On September 18: "On Thursday (Sept 18), at 11am the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the U.S., to the tune of $550 billion was being drawn out in the matter of an hour or two. The Treasury opened up its window to help and pumped a $105 billion in the system and quickly realized that they could not stem the tide. We were having an electronic run on the banks. They decided to close the operation, close down the money accounts and announce a guarantee of $250,000 per account so there wouldn't be further panic out there.
If they had not done that, their estimation is that by 2pm that afternoon, $5.5 trillion would have been drawn out of the money market system of the U.S., would have collapsed the entire economy of the U.S., and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. It would have been the end of our economic system and our political system as we know it."
Image by artemuestra via FlickrFrom economy.com, Marc Zandi gives his upbeat look ahead to the national economy in 2008. Among the highlights:
The coming year will be the worst in decades for the U.S. economy as millions of jobs are lost across nearly all industries, occupations and regions.
Although the crisis began with excesses in the financial system, it was exacerbated by policy missteps that led to financial panic.
Despite their past errors, only concerted action by policymakers can end the panic and prevent the forecast from turning darker.
Even if the recession ends this year, recovery will be slow, with GDP not reaching its pre-recession peak until late 2010.
The current episode, while painful, could lead to needed reform of the financial and regulatory system.
This will likely be the worst year for the U.S. economy since the end of the 1930s. The recession that began 13 months ago will plague much of 2009, particularly during the first half of the year.
Real GDP is expected to fall 3% peak to trough, and close to 5 million jobs will be lost. The unemployment rate will surge to 9%. The drop in manufacturing will be especially severe, but the hallmark of this downturn will be its breadth across industries, occupations and regions. More than 300 of the nation's 381 metropolitan areas will be in recession; unlike in past recessions, which were regionally concentrated, there is no obvious place to move for better prospects in this downturn.
Image via WikipediaA recently released report by Paris-based Euler Hermes, the world's largest credit insurer, concludes that Europe and the U.S. will experience a significant increase in business failures in 2009.
Image via WikipediaNYTimes.com: "Federal authorities have been tracking what they describe as a brazen swindle of some of New York’s savviest investors by one of New York’s more accomplished lawyers. Mr. Dreier has been charged with multiple frauds in the United States and a related crime in Canada, and is being held without bail in Manhattan.
In court last week, prosecutors said their count so far put the money missing at $380 million, most of it lost by hedge funds and other investors who had bought promissory notes that were flat-out fictions.
In recent days, Dreier L.L.P., the Park Avenue law firm that Mr. Dreier founded, has been plunged into chaos. At least $35 million in escrow that was to have been held by the firm seems to be missing, the authorities say, and nearly all of its 250 lawyers are now looking for work."
According to a new study by Duke University and CFO Magazine.
Executives say they expect the recession to last for another year. They also say that earnings, capital spending and employment all will drop in 2009.
Duke says that this quarter’s study, which asked 1,275 CFOs around the world about their expectations for the economy, finds CFOs at their most pessimistic in the survey’s more than 12-year history. Some 81 percent of U.S. CFOs are more pessimistic about the economy now than they were a quarter ago, and almost 60 percent say the U.S. economy won’t recover until the fourth quarter of 2009 or later – with 39 percent saying recovery won’t start until 2010.
CFOs say employment should fall by 5 percent in the U.S. and Europe in 2009. Capital spending will fall by 10 percent in all regions.
NEW YORK — The latest bailout of Citigroup (C) helped soothe financial markets Monday and could serve as a model for other U.S. banks looking for help with their large portfolios of toxic assets.
The U.S. government late Sunday offered $20 billion for Citi preferred stock, on top of the $25 billion it has already given the bank. But this time, the government also said it will assume 90% of losses from Citi's $306 billion portfolio of loans related to bad mortgages if the losses exceed $29 billion, in return for another $7 billion in Citi preferred stock.
The news boosted Citi shares 58% to $5.95, helped lift other battered financial stocks and triggered a broad market rally Monday in which the Dow Jones industrials surged 397 points to 8443.
NEW YORK — The latest bailout of Citigroup (C) helped soothe financial markets Monday and could serve as a model for other U.S. banks looking for help with their large portfolios of toxic assets.
The U.S. government late Sunday offered $20 billion for Citi preferred stock, on top of the $25 billion it has already given the bank. But this time, the government also said it will assume 90% of losses from Citi's $306 billion portfolio of loans related to bad mortgages if the losses exceed $29 billion, in return for another $7 billion in Citi preferred stock.
The news boosted Citi shares 58% to $5.95, helped lift other battered financial stocks and triggered a broad market rally Monday in which the Dow Jones industrials surged 397 points to 8443.
Analysts say the backstop was essential to calm investors worried that the values of U.S. bank portfolios have been getting worse each passing month. "Persistent downward pressure on valuations of residential mortgage assets are being compounded by falling valuations of commercial real estate and other assets," says Brian Bethune at IHS Global Insight.
Any bank with similar toxic assets in their portfolio now has a chance to ask the government for similar cover. "Bank of America (BAC) can use this template to reduce the risk on Merrill's (MER) portfolio before they close the deal," says Cassandra Toroian, chief investment officer at Bell Rock Capital. BofA declined comment.
For the government, this is a way to stretch the fast-dwindling cash available from the $700 billion bailout fund. "It enables the government to leverage taxpayers' money better," says Keith Davis, financial analyst at Farr Miller & Washington. "This way, you can avoid buying up bad assets, and hopefully not have to bear losses unless the situation worsens."
For the banks, analysts say, this could calm investors by putting a floor on losses from the bad assets. Also, it's like an insurance policy, which the banks might never need to access, Bethune says.
This marked another reversal for the government, which two weeks ago said it would not take any action related to toxic assets, as it had planned, and instead would invest directly in the banks. That news sent financial stocks tumbling. Citi was especially hard hit, falling 60% to $3.77 last week, prompting the bank to ask for more federal help. Now, "If the investors start to go after Goldman (Sachs) (GS) or Morgan Stanley, (MS) you can see them, too, ask for similar government guarantees," Davis says. Goldman and Morgan declined comment.
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.
Purchases of existing homes slid to an annual rate of 4.98 million, lower than forecast, a National Association of Realtors report showed in Washington. The median price fell 11.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since the group began collecting data in 1968.
Today’s figures indicate a renewed downturn in an industry that showed signs of stabilizing this year, hurt by the credit squeeze and record mortgage foreclosures. That may raise pressure on President-elect Barack Obama to aid homeowners and potential buyers as he assembles a record stimulus package.
“Home sales will continue to fall over the next few months because of tightening credit conditions,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, which had the closest estimate for the sales level among 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. “Underlying demand appears very weak” because “many sales are coming from cheap prices on foreclosed properties,” he added."
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm to convert to a bank, plans to sell notes in the first offering of debt backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., according to a person with knowledge of the transaction.
Goldman is leading banks in what analysts said may be a wave of as much as $600 billion of government-guaranteed issuance. Goldman’s benchmark sale may price as soon as tomorrow, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms aren’t set. Benchmark size typically means at least $500 million.
The government guarantee opens a new channel for bank funding after the credit seizure sapped demand for financial debt and sent yields to record highs of 7.24 percentage points above Treasuries. Banks, which haven’t sold dollar-denominated bonds since September, may raise $400 billion to $600 billion under the program within six months, Barclays Capital estimated in October."
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_sjQi4W_KCvF5x_-Ir7A35-Bw-YWSI1FF3c3aP-1MhFD6fBR757xxtYuNBOvVF2FMKoISpuBfExJetAoTJgt2SRwVhabL7q9ZlZqNo4WYzbUNS4SPJ0t_bWTR_UWxLX3BFGrij_tjh6U0eHEUGuQNBh=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vshMHiCbW3hEckdxZ0v4s7RiqMS0ZfOHW4aU-PmaUuApz-UXvCYqQB-LjB0qS0HET9OFDDIEXfNb-VmrZOBDuxMNQKKMETsASHXEoLZeiXuvYwTHATqZX0_nEIbxqy1f1ezX1a7MBc1ITRMZjZva4=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_shS4YE_Z1Xu3VrdwQUfTwurH_txadDXdlCyAhUjWhl5Ai1n8fAo1mQ96ZATFOUjI3IAxMbZ2SVS7g1vd7oebHCOxkNxKe42OqMPBpdjSZ0EdaCMLavDWqprqyxP3cntqSjDpujLOd2Z2gTDU-QFwqW=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_uPSkcFzfFuNHyYRYU8Am7iXeBqj40ExD1NqchJT4qFX0A5ipJ8Ub1AxuN8-R9kEFMAlyWzu-PISXsF2HX3Xj3gUMo0IoahF39Tf5Di9gKvdjc2TaFvehD3I3lLZeXibvs5Wm243UM72oxT6sUdIgRn=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vqifR738WoNNCD8R_cm_q2hU3Nl56ymmCxxFSz1MIv2nuqQPM06PDuAqjcKUaXnNpT_-zpAxvvmujlSJv98BNPcQzz89cFzsdrOMGIC-_82LDY5HemB6Nn97qTzk_be-EaAI7yTM9JLsS8T4vZQF_t=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vnRM6nsP9678MgoPUkD-UtoHGrNOEyuF6YeZS-Ztf_rJK5qs3yI8toA1w19Onm_ZbqipwcQNdopEFrAd0TJWX6rlToJDk8bwt6de6ccY3wbKwYmxNurfTdrHrq6ID42od5wAaVdcJ5SfuI9CYqLBw=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vqhk9eiB9kk9dBhVGsI5ge6vTSczXnATvoVSYho97lbVxJs-t6UO6fDbT1UEnd9K-NXnSKQyiNzHvH157daMMCSF7iP2Q7Pr8-A5zo1vNcc0XmDvkT-ZL47Ffkvl5ys2mqKSl94InItJqD_PH8PvR2=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_uO5VZR_5uXS5xuDRKCWORTSBwy5TuYCgJHiffIMqhn4oMs4Z-jrCdafY89XV-wLpvNd8ZY9D1a73G-1nHJnWmFa8-_RqcIRgOgp1MZI1GHugQmNFoiZLQ_8R1PndlYvmfPwMvTrlXbPNkPjSmKP5yd=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vAOU2lg4G0o2V0SkrJ9ZK-vMM7Lep-0UvfOSHzxqA2VQTrvDARf2g1JIn9SxCWvxYCGOrGCLfA5xO10ZFfSTcZN-zTPDwIGeL1JIqJG9m6f5_KMEsOk6uOJ1vROwi4lF0ISUmC62PZEF2MhtwfCboS=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_sFQziTt8V5NqeF0IYfuVelsbjo0vlwWaldQpayX7u_Ln3wjm60J_KrO4_pb4VUKn_ZcP3K5aKuKZnFD5JuC-rvt8_IwSdzO3rknx2xrnDH58NZpOxzxjhQQkanJqLjF5k-eXXqqY5X1JEHgIMjPdVm=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vKS0LKP4yMAS52lUzqGJJ80zZbkAUy5HFwei_4v0bA1wHeiLDMgwh11m9qrbBnG-N5rFeSs5G3fXSN6hmTPmxJ8Bfgjt5Dl9eF7sIr1ufl-7KNPC00N6DeHOyJ7lNOmq9FaZ28NIjlcAXLfIXwiL8=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vCTD9jCa6iVwuUmiQNZFrL0H4hBL9rR_O1lvGbotLwoEGoJa2Ar_ER_RzuRowkOobeMmo1fbhvNtKhQHD2qdp_hXS3SMx4_9VMun4glvfShwWTCp4Vnt_rfGvW6aXG8mSqniJ_h9r3iNbi11-MNQ5S=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_s6JYlznRof2JzYQ7IEzAA_atBkIbA3pdTCPOBrzTFr4m-d0eeUPotkwXB8wMJgw9P0eW03wpIKb7SHDuDgN7MOiyRHaS2KKxGauPqVI6MS8AqW10xNX3x-GwgfNVbB60qexDXl8bhYIFGNfZ8S1hJ7=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vylDGr_FXCUEc_tTF-ajquVBXUrcuSqx2mtQ6hIr2SPOovFIbPXZQOnZBBOziKvNNl-Wa28TjWSDuZ2PW2JnD8UIh2y6BR4Tc4qkDItC40V8wCG6GyRd6zfZkLkwr0B-Gx3OXgnTwZnwPV3OWbavk=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vCEJ8SuyxqGiRL-Iw8DhkY3B3omxtR99sSfWKxi6U0gI-ENIrD9ErZVmUFbpPWH6JY6PzKRdQ1uOWad0x4DTOxBQZNMRY2EFgXu3jATkakNrzkHzx34fYkH6YBmmBbEwmqXWxqM8QrLzo_s42LiIrY=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_s19xd9plw1uShKtjM0AInj86rhZ7sQkXi-wmgDTqq04Ckp55TxR3F2nvm_K9WOf9MKIhIvj1Zo-RDY23xcxH3COQaKmNRuaI3uhKBwz6CdgxFJiOpWK-svM3AyP1ttnamC7lhcFh4zcfw8Lkqtldlj=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_tKLtuBcV_53z1LRBZRS-Zqeo7MwHjN-PV6qWP7vsiLnBJ1_l87FUxQN9CeXrsR35N-wTgafmlIaW3t46zJAOWS-Fj17D_JMx3ug3FQP7YeJ-02hHKmzN9Y8FDokYeSVnFxfOkttcGVy2a2KQy5thwE=s0-d)
![Reblog this post [with Zemanta]](https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/blogger_img_proxy/AEn0k_vFAKrDlUppz-5a_ruIhIzn_ry7IhUIatQjK5StCubRT-hJTOCljx5Mw3vo_zhG3d_hdF7hdRERuqFhG_tHaM0Ht5rJQ_3x39rf_j37OY87EwYoNE3K0jKsAZZnVabM6fLm8TWGf6qqxOexJpc7m9jt=s0-d)
Posts
