Worldwide Bankruptcy Wave About to Hit

Image via WikipediaA recently released report by Paris-based Euler Hermes, the world's largest credit insurer, concludes that Europe and the U.S. will experience a significant increase in business failures in 2009.

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CFOs are pessimistic

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According to a new study by Duke University and CFO Magazine.

Executives say they expect the recession to last for another year. They also say that earnings, capital spending and employment all will drop in 2009.

Duke says that this quarter’s study, which asked 1,275 CFOs around the world about their expectations for the economy, finds CFOs at their most pessimistic in the survey’s more than 12-year history. Some 81 percent of U.S. CFOs are more pessimistic about the economy now than they were a quarter ago, and almost 60 percent say the U.S. economy won’t recover until the fourth quarter of 2009 or later – with 39 percent saying recovery won’t start until 2010.

CFOs say employment should fall by 5 percent in the U.S. and Europe in 2009. Capital spending will fall by 10 percent in all regions.

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Contagion could fracture the eurozone

The Guardian: "Somehow you always sensed that it was tempting fate when the German finance minister, Peer Steinbrück, said last month that the credit crunch was an American matter. How long would it be before the contagion that knocked the stuffing out of Wall Street and the City would claim a eurozone bank or two?

Well, the hubristic words were barely out of Steinbrück's mouth before we had our answer. The Belgians and the Dutch bailed out Fortis bank; the Irish made a blanket guarantee on deposits amid fears that at least one, and probably two, of their big banks were about to go belly up.

Steinbrück's musings on whether the US was losing its status as the world's economic hegemon were interrupted by the need to seek approval from Brussels for the ill-fated €35bn (£27bn) rescue of Germany's Hypo Real Estate banking group. And by the weekend the leaders of Europe's big four - Germany, France, Italy and Britain - were calling for an emergency global summit next month. A lesson for finance ministers: try not to anger the gods."

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Europe Cannot Escape

Image via WikipediaContagion could fracture the eurozone: "The week's events have challenged the smug notion that the credit crunch is a purely Anglo-Saxon affair. A glance around Europe shows this is far from the truth: from Iceland to Greece, there are signs of acute stress accentuated by the same marked slowdown as in the UK.

France's quarterly growth rate slowed from 0.7% in the third quarter of last year to 0.4% in each of the next two quarters, then went negative by 0.3% in quarter two of this year. Christine Lagarde, finance minister, expects GDP to contract again in the third quarter. This is technically a recession: two consecutive quarters of falling output.

Italy has performed even less well. GDP fell in both the fourth quarter of 2007 and the second quarter of this year, dragging the already anaemic annual growth rate down to zero. In France it is 1.1% and in Britain 1.4%. Germany has been the best performing of Europe's big four economies, but it too is slowing as demand for its exports is affected by the global slowdown. Germany's output fell by 0.5% in the second quarter, pulling its annual growth rate down to 1.7%.

By comparison, annual growth in the US is 2.2%, although the strong performance in the second quarter was due to a one-off $150bn (£85bn) tax cut, and the economy now appears to be slowing fast."

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Help! What is LIBOR?

Image via WikipediaBloomberg.com: Exclusive: From "Libor Mystifies Americans as Mayor Reads `Doomsday' By Peter Robison

Libor, set every morning in London, is what banks pay to borrow money from each other. That in turn determines prices for financial contracts valued at $393 trillion as of Dec. 31, 2007, or $60,000 for every person in the world, and helps set consumer interest rates on everything"
In the past week, as governments in Europe rescued five banks and the U.S. debated a bailout, the cost of one-month bank loans in euros and overnight dollar loans soared to records. In practice, that means banks are hoarding cash, raising borrowing costs and slowing economies worldwide. Today's three-month Libor for loans in dollars jumped to 4.33 percent. Overnight dollar loans rose 168 percent on Sept. 30, to a record 6.8 percent from 2.6 percent. '

Libor is actually a set of rates, calculated for several currencies on periods ranging from overnight to 12 months. The British Bankers' Association compiles the dollar rate every day from data submitted by 16 banks, including Deutsche Bank AG and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc. There are also rates for the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Australian and Canadian dollars.

Corporate bank loans are often linked to three-month Libor rates. Libor also affects interest costs on credit cards, student loans and adjustable-rate mortgages. From 2004 to 2006, more than half of the U.S. subprime mortgages at the root of the financial crisis, or those issued to the least creditworthy borrowers, had adjustable rates linked to Libor, said Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance in Bethesda, Maryland.

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