NYT Editorial Observer

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With the Downturn, It’s Time to Rethink the Legal Profession By ADAM COHEN April 1, 2009

The economic downturn is hitting the legal world hard. American Lawyer is calling it “the fire this time” and warning that big firms may be hurtling toward “a paradigm-shifting, blood-in-the-suites” future. The Law Shucks blog has a “layoff tracker,” and it is grim reading. Top firms are rapidly thinning their ranks, and several — including Heller Ehrman, a venerable 500-plus-lawyer firm founded in 1890 — have closed."

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "The current financial and economic crisis is difficult to appreciate, not only for the drop in elevation, but because of the swiftness of the declines. It’s been a Wile E. Coyote 12 months – straight down like a dead weight. A year ago, global equity prices were nearly twice today’s levels and recession was only a whisper on the lips of the gloomiest of economists. Today, descriptions drawing parallels to the Great Depression make it obvious that a major shift in economic growth and its historic financial model, as well as policy prescriptions for its revival, are underway. Most of the world’s connected economies and its citizens are in shock, conscious but not fully aware of the seismic shifts that will unfold in future years.

PIMCO’s thesis for several years has held that the levered global economy long ago morphed from a banking-dominated regime to one that hid behind securitized lending and structures resembling a “shadow banking” system. SIVs, hedge funds, CDOs and increasingly levered mortgage and investment banks fueled asset appreciation in all investment markets, which in turn propelled real economic growth and employment to unsustainable levels. But, with U.S. housing prices as its trigger, the delevering process did a Wile E. Coyote and headed over the cliff in"

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PIMCO - Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO   Beep Beep: "The current financial and economic crisis is difficult to appreciate, not only for the drop in elevation, but because of the swiftness of the declines. It’s been a Wile E. Coyote 12 months – straight down like a dead weight. A year ago, global equity prices were nearly twice today’s levels and recession was only a whisper on the lips of the gloomiest of economists. Today, descriptions drawing parallels to the Great Depression make it obvious that a major shift in economic growth and its historic financial model, as well as policy prescriptions for its revival, are underway. Most of the world’s connected economies and its citizens are in shock, conscious but not fully aware of the seismic shifts that will unfold in future years.

PIMCO’s thesis for several years has held that the levered global economy long ago morphed from a banking-dominated regime to one that hid behind securitized lending and structures resembling a “shadow banking” system. SIVs, hedge funds, CDOs and increasingly levered mortgage and investment banks fueled asset appreciation in all investment markets, which in turn propelled real economic growth and employment to unsustainable levels. But, with U.S. housing prices as its trigger, the delevering process did a Wile E. Coyote and headed over the cliff in"

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The Slide Continues

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Bloomberg.com: Worldwide: "The U.S. economy is likely to keep deteriorating in early 2009 after shrinking last quarter by the most since 1982, as consumers and businesses retrench.

The 3.8 percent annual pace of contraction in the fourth quarter was less than forecast, with a buildup of unsold goods cushioning the blow. Excluding inventories, the decline was 5.1 percent, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.

Job cuts announced this month by companies from Starbucks Corp. and Pep Boys - Manny, Moe & Jack to Eastman Kodak Co. mean there’ll be little respite in the first half of this year, economists said. The Obama administration used the figures to reinforce its call for Congress to pass a stimulus package in excess of $800 billion to arrest the economy’s decline.

“The recession is going to last through most of 2009, and we’ll be lucky to have growth back at zero by the end of the year,” Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard University economics professor, said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Davos, Switzerland, yesterday. Economic growth “will be pretty tepid for a long time.”"

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Japan Heads for Worst Postwar Slump

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Bloomberg.com: Worldwide: "Jan. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Japan headed for its worst postwar recession as factory output slumped an unprecedented 9.6 percent in December, unemployment surged and households cut spending.

The drop in production eclipsed the previous record of 8.5 percent set only a month earlier, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The jobless rate soared to 4.4 percent from 3.9 percent, the biggest jump in 41 years.

Recessions in the U.S. and Europe and a slowdown in China have smothered demand for Japanese cars and electronics. Toshiba Corp., which is firing 4,500 workers, yesterday forecast a record annual loss and said it will delay building a chip factory. Honda Motor Co. this week widened production cuts.

“Japan’s economy is falling off a cliff,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “There’s really nothing out there to drive growth.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average sank 3.4 percent at the morning close in Tokyo, led by Toshiba and Nintendo Co., which cut its profit forecast by a third yesterday. The Nikkei has fallen 10.1 percent this year, extending last year’s record 42 percent drop."

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Fed Warns of Global Deflation

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“The Fed statement yesterday said its prediction of a “gradual recovery” in the U.S. economy later this year has “significant” risks of failing to materialize. At their meeting, central bank officials gave updated forecasts for gross domestic product, inflation and unemployment that will be released with meeting minutes on Feb. 18.

It sounds like the worry is not so much recession as it is depression,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. “We can only hope that the famous long and variable lags of monetary policy will eventually kick in.”

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The Darkest Hour

Image by artemuestra via FlickrFrom economy.com, Marc Zandi gives his upbeat look ahead to the national economy in 2008. Among the highlights:

• The coming year will be the worst in decades for the U.S. economy as millions of jobs are lost across nearly all industries, occupations and regions.

• Although the crisis began with excesses in the financial system, it was exacerbated by policy missteps that led to financial panic.

• Despite their past errors, only concerted action by policymakers can end the panic and prevent the forecast from turning darker.

• Even if the recession ends this year, recovery will be slow, with GDP not reaching its pre-recession peak until late 2010.

• The current episode, while painful, could lead to needed reform of the financial and regulatory system.

This will likely be the worst year for the U.S. economy since the end of the 1930s. The recession that began 13 months ago will plague much of 2009, particularly during the first half of the year.

Real GDP is expected to fall 3% peak to trough, and close to 5 million jobs will be lost. The unemployment rate will surge to 9%. The drop in manufacturing will be especially severe, but the hallmark of this downturn will be its breadth across industries, occupations and regions. More than 300 of the nation's 381 metropolitan areas will be in recession; unlike in past recessions, which were regionally concentrated, there is no obvious place to move for better prospects in this downturn.

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CFOs are pessimistic

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According to a new study by Duke University and CFO Magazine.

Executives say they expect the recession to last for another year. They also say that earnings, capital spending and employment all will drop in 2009.

Duke says that this quarter’s study, which asked 1,275 CFOs around the world about their expectations for the economy, finds CFOs at their most pessimistic in the survey’s more than 12-year history. Some 81 percent of U.S. CFOs are more pessimistic about the economy now than they were a quarter ago, and almost 60 percent say the U.S. economy won’t recover until the fourth quarter of 2009 or later – with 39 percent saying recovery won’t start until 2010.

CFOs say employment should fall by 5 percent in the U.S. and Europe in 2009. Capital spending will fall by 10 percent in all regions.

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Home Sales Fall, Record Drop in Prices

Image via WikipediaBloomberg.com: U.S.: By Timothy R. Homan

Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.

Purchases of existing homes slid to an annual rate of 4.98 million, lower than forecast, a National Association of Realtors report showed in Washington. The median price fell 11.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since the group began collecting data in 1968.

Today’s figures indicate a renewed downturn in an industry that showed signs of stabilizing this year, hurt by the credit squeeze and record mortgage foreclosures. That may raise pressure on President-elect Barack Obama to aid homeowners and potential buyers as he assembles a record stimulus package.

“Home sales will continue to fall over the next few months because of tightening credit conditions,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, which had the closest estimate for the sales level among 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. “Underlying demand appears very weak” because “many sales are coming from cheap prices on foreclosed properties,” he added."

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Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The world may be heading for its worst recession in a quarter of a century -- if it's lucky.

A steep slump looks likely as the credit squeeze crunches economies from the U.S. to Singapore and panic engulfs global financial markets.

``It's certainly going to be the worst since the 1980s,'' says Bradford DeLong, an economics professor at the University of California at Berkeley who worked at the U.S. Treasury
Department from 1993 to 1995. ``The hope is that it won't become the worst unemployment business cycle since the Great Depression.''

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