Something Is Not Right

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Social Security: We Can Solve This

1) raise the retirement age for today's teens and toddlers up to 69. Longevity is increasing at such a rate that it will still be a great deal for them. 2) raise the income ceiling, the amount of income to which social security taxes are applied. I don't favor removing the ceiling altogether because it violates my sense of fairness. This fundraising is not for the national defense but to cushion the later years. There should be a limit as to how much someone is asked to subsidize other people's retirements. 3) Trim the increase that Social Security recipients receive each year. Currently they get the COLA adjustment, but they got an extra dollop last year because the inflation rate was too low. An index that trails inflation by a fraction would minimize the impact but could save substantial sums over time. Of course, if the Medicare costs for Part B and D go way up as they are supposed to that would be an unfair double whammy on the elderly. This would need to be part of the calculus on any COLA fix.

The ideas above all make sense, but they make even better sense when combined for the simple reason that it becomes shared sacrifice: the younger generations see a delayed retirement age, the middle generations see a slightly higher tax on wages and the older generation sees some limits on the rate of increase in payments. If everyone takes a piece of this responsibility it becomes less of a burden on everyone.

Social Security: We Can Solve This

Monday, March 15, 2010

AIG might pay back $170 billion of its $182 billion bailout.

WASHINGTON - MARCH 19: Federal Reserve System...

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Here is a great article from Slate written by Daniel Gross, a writer from Newsweek. Definitely worth a read.

A quick except:

"When you look at the financial markets as a whole, the post-crisis bailout efforts have worked out better than expected. Many of the financial market guarantees were lifted without having been used, and the Treasury is turning a profit on the central component of the TARP. But AIG has so far loomed as a gigantic rebuttal to the optimists, a symbol of everything that went wrong.

But it turns out that the efforts to prop up AIG are also working out much better than expected. AIG still owes the Fed and the Treasury a combined $127 billion. But—surprise!—AIG is paying a lot of its debts back. And there's a not too far-fetched scenario in which we come close to breaking on our reluctant investment in the company."

Want to know how? Read the full article here: Here's a surprise: AIG might pay back $170 billion of its $182 billion bailout.

Sunday, January 10, 2010

Jeremy Siegel on 2010: Good for Stocks, Bad for Bonds -- and Why Interest Rates Will Go Up - Knowledge@Wharton

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Understanding the rules for 2010. Interview by Knowledge@Wharton of Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel.

Jeremy Siegel on 2010: Good for Stocks, Bad for Bonds -- and Why Interest Rates Will Go Up - Knowledge@Wharton

Knowledge@Wharton: What is inflation going to do?

Siegel: Inflation is going to be under control this year and probably into 2011. However, we will have an upward tilt to inflation, which means the longer-run trends point to a 2%-to-4% range of inflation rather than zero to two, which unofficially is what most central banks and the Fed have targeted.

The scaremongers, who worry that the ton of money the Fed created to fight off the crisis is going to fuel the next [period of] inflation, are wrong.

Knowledge@Wharton: But the 2%-to-4% range is standard over the long run, right?

Siegel: It's not. I remember when I was studying economics, we talked about what a victory it would be if we could get down to between 2% and 4%. We've been spoiled with very low rates. Most central banks use zero to two. They come closer to two.

We'll move closer to between 2% and 4%, particularly in the United States, given the large deficits that we have and the liquidity that was created. But just as Bernanke acted very responsibly in providing the liquidity necessary to prevent [a repeat of] the Great Depression, he is also an excellent enough economist to know that money is what fuels inflation. The Fed is really solely responsible for inflation. He will not let it go above five, and probably not even four. He will raise interest rates to whatever level is necessary if inflation starts running into the mid-single digits or higher.

Knowledge@Wharton: When we talk about inflation, we also often talk about commodities. There has been a pretty good run in some commodities, especially gold. What do you see happening there?

Siegel: The commodities cycle has followed the world economy. It had hit its low very close to the same time the stock market did. Now that the world markets have recovered, we see oil has recovered. I would love to see it in the 70-to-80 range.

Commodities are fully priced. Gold ... is priced for an inflationary scenario that is much worse than will be realized. Gold is a risky investment now.... That is not going to be a good investment throughout 2010 and the longer term.

The Indian Economy in the Next Decade: Déjà Vu with a Difference - Knowledge@Wharton

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What should India expect next year and what should we expect of Indi?. Some different viewpoints set forth in an interesting Knowledge @ Wharton article.

The Indian Economy in the Next Decade: Déjà Vu with a Difference - Knowledge@Wharton

"In 2010, governments will face the very difficult task of trying to restore fiscal discipline while also ensuring that withdrawals of stimulus measures do not kill off nascent economic recoveries," says the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). It estimates India's GDP growth at 6.5%, the ninth-fastest growing country. China, at 8.7%, is ahead, but others leading the pack are small economies like Qatar (24.5%).

Saturday, May 23, 2009

To Fill Vacancies, Mall Owners Test Experimental Waters - NYTimes.com

To Fill Vacancies, Mall Owners Test Experimental Waters - NYTimes.com: "Greg Maloney, president and chief executive of the retail group at Jones Lang LaSalle, a real estate brokerage firm, said that to fill empty anchor spaces, landlords were getting creative and were considering bringing in grocery stores, medical facilities, dance studios and even community or technical colleges.

“I think you’re going to see a lot more of that,” Mr. Maloney said.

Several schools — like New River Community College in Virginia and Hagerstown Community College’s Center for Continuing Education in Maryland — have been holding classes in malls for years. But industry professionals say the trend is likely to accelerate.

With Americans buying less, many chains are asking mall owners for rent reductions, and are sometimes receiving them. That adds to the malls’ financial woes.

One of the nation’s largest mall owners, General Growth Properties, is laden with more than $25 billion of debt, has missed payment deadlines on its bonds, and is trying to avoid filing for bankruptcy protection.

Landlords are willing to lower rents for their best retailers — but only those that can prove financial distress. The landlords may not be able to play hardball for long, though. More major chains are expected to file for bankruptcy"

Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Electricity Grid in U.S. Penetrated by Spies

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WSJ.com: "WASHINGTON -- Cyberspies have penetrated the U.S. electrical grid and left behind software programs that could be used to disrupt the system, according to current and former national-security officials.

The spies came from China, Russia and other countries, these officials said, and were believed to be on a mission to navigate the U.S. electrical system and its controls. The intruders haven't sought to damage the power grid or other key infrastructure, but officials warned they could try during a crisis or war.

'The Chinese have attempted to map our infrastructure, such as the electrical grid,' said a senior intelligence official. 'So have the Russians.'

The espionage appeared pervasive across the U.S. and doesn't target a particular company or region, said a former Department of Homeland Security official. 'There are intrusions, and they are growing,' the former official said, referring to electrical systems. 'There were a lot last year.'
Discuss

Many of the intrusions were detected not by the companies in charge of the infrastructure but by U.S. intelligence agencies, officials said. Intelligence officials worry about cyber attackers taking control of electrical facilities, a nuclear power plant or financial networks via the Internet."

Saturday, April 4, 2009

NYT Editorial Observer

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With the Downturn, It’s Time to Rethink the Legal Profession By ADAM COHEN April 1, 2009

The economic downturn is hitting the legal world hard. American Lawyer is calling it “the fire this time” and warning that big firms may be hurtling toward “a paradigm-shifting, blood-in-the-suites” future. The Law Shucks blog has a “layoff tracker,” and it is grim reading. Top firms are rapidly thinning their ranks, and several — including Heller Ehrman, a venerable 500-plus-lawyer firm founded in 1890 — have closed."

Thursday, April 2, 2009

Wen Jiabao

WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM ANNUAL MEETING 2009 - We...

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25 People to Blame for the Financial Crisis - TIME:

If cheap credit was the crack cocaine of this financial crisis — and it was — then China was one of its primary dealers. China is now the largest creditor to the U.S. government, holding an estimated $1.7 trillion in dollar-denominated debt. That massive build-up in dollar holdings is specifically linked to China's efforts to control the value of its currency. China didn't want the renminbi to rise too rapidly against the dollar, in part because a cheap currency kept its export sector humming — which it did until U.S. demand cratered last fall."

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Systemic risk of life insurance company failure

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From AIG's website, a whitepaper on the Systemic Risk in the insurance industry. Certainly, AIG is wrapping themselves in the cover of their industry by speaking of the industry's Systemic Risk. But whether it is the entire industry at risk or just AIG and some others, the acknowledgment of systemic risk in such a direct way is striking:

"A significant rise in surrender rates – inspired by consumers’ needs for cash or because of rumored or real failure of insurance companies – could be disastrous. Because of widespread loss of liquidity, the industry would struggle to raise adequate cash to meet surrender requests. A “run on the bank” in the life and retirement business would have sweeping impacts across the economy in the U.S. In countries around the world with higher savings rates than the U.S., the failure of insurance companies like AIG would be a catastrophe."

Read the full March 6 Draft whitepaper titled: AIG: Is the Risk Systemic?

Who benefited by US support of AIG

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Barclays $7.0
Deutsche Bank 6.4
BNP Paribas $4.9
Goldman Sachs $4.8
Bank of America $4.5
HSBC $3.3
Citigroup $2.3
Dresdner Kleinwort $2.2
Merrill Lynch $1.9
UBS $1.7
ING $1.5
Morgan Stanley $1.0
Societe Generale $0.9
AIG International Inc. $0.6
Credit Suisse $0.4
Paloma Securities $0.2
Citadel $0.2
Total $43.7

AIG's Municipal Counterparties

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Municipalities listed on Attachment C received a total of $12.1 billion from AIGFP between September 16, 2008 and December 31, 2008 in satisfaction of Guaranteed Investment Agreement (GIA) obligations. GIAs are structured investments with a guaranteed rate of return. Municipalities typically use GIAs to invest the proceeds from bond issuances until the funds are needed.

AIG reveals who we are bailing out

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Confused? We all are. Read this to learn what Financial Derivatives are.

Severe valuation losses on the super senior multi-sector credit default swap portfolio of AIG Financial Products Corp. (AIGFP) triggered collateral provisions in the swap contracts, creating a liquidity crisis for AIG in September 2008. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) provided an emergency $85 billion loan to AIG to meet short-term cash needs. The aid received by AIG helped avoid severe financial disruptions by providing liquidity to important financial institutions and municipalities.

Using funds from the emergency loan, financial counterparties listed on Attachment A (all attachments are posted online at http://www.aig.com/Related-Resources_385_136430.html ) received a total of $22.4 billion in collateral relating to CDS transactions from AIGFP between September 16, 2008 and December 31, 2008. This amount represents funds provided to such counterparties after the date on which AIG began receiving government assistance. The counterparties received additional collateral from AIG prior to September 16, 2008.

FT.com / China - China lost billions in diversity drive

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FT.com / China - China lost billions in diversity drive: "China has lost tens of billions of dollars of its foreign exchange reserves through a poorly timed diversification into global equities just before world markets collapsed last year.

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the opaque manager of nearly $2,000bn (€1,547bn, £1,429bn) of reserves, started making huge bets on global stocks early in 2007 and continued this strategy at least until the collapse of the US mortgage finance providers Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae in July 2008, according to analysts and people familiar with Safe’s operations.

By that point Safe had moved well over 15 per cent of the country’s $1,800bn reserves into riskier assets, including equities and corporate bonds, according to people familiar with its strategy.

Safe never discloses its holdings except to the top Chinese leadership so it is impossible to know exactly how much it has lost from diversifying before markets crashed.

But judging from the subsequent fall in global stock prices and a conservative estimate that Safe held about $160bn worth of overseas equities, Chinese"

AIG CEO Letter to Geithner

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Letter from AIG's government appointed Chairman and CEO Edward Liddy to US Secretary of the Treasury Geithner:

In the first quarter of 2008, prior management took significant retention steps at AIG Financial Products. These arrangements were designed at a time when AIG Financial Products was expected to have a significant, ongoing role at AIG, and guaranteed a minimum level of pay for both 2008 and 2009. (Due to losses at AIG Financial Products, a senior manager will receive about 43% of his 2007 expected level for 2008.) Some of these payments are coming due on March 15, and, quite frankly, AIG’s hands are tied. Outside counsel has advised thatthese are legal, binding obligations of AIG, and there are serious legal, as well as business, consequences for not paying. Given the trillion-dollar portfolio at AIG Financial Products, retaining key traders and risk managers is critical to our goal of repayment. This is all discussed in more detail in the attached “white paper.”

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Help! What is a Derivative?

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Derivatives are financial contracts (financial instruments) whose values are derived from the value of something else (known as the underlying). The underlying on which a derivative is based can be an asset (e.g., commodities, stocks, residential mortgages, commercial real estate, loans, bonds), an index (e.g., interest rates, exchange rates, stock market indices, consumer price index (CPI) — see inflation derivatives), or other items (e.g., weather conditions). Credit derivatives are based on loans, bonds or other forms of credit.

Derivatives can be used to mitigate the risk of economic loss arising from changes in the value of the underlying. This activity is known as hedging. Alternatively, derivatives can be used by investors to increase the profit arising if the value of the underlying moves in the direction they expect. This activity is known as speculation.

Because the value of a derivative is contingent on the value of the underlying, the notional value of derivatives is recorded off the balance sheet of an institution, although the market value of derivatives is recorded on the balance sheet.

Three major classes of derivatives:

1. Futures: Contract to buy or sell an asset on or before a future date at a price specified today. It is a standardized contract written by a clearing house that operates an exchange where the contract can be bought and sold. (Similarly, but with an important difference, a forward contract is a non-standardized contract written by the parties themselves.)

2. Options are contracts that give the owner the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset. (A call option is an option to buy, a put option is an option to or sell). The price at which the sale takes place is known as the strike price and is specified at the time the parties enter into the option. The option contract also specifies a maturity date. If the owner of the contract exercises this right, the counterparty has the obligation to carry out the transaction.

3. Swaps are contracts to exchange cash (flows) on or before a specified future date based on the underlying value of currencies/exchange rates, bonds/interest rates, commodities, stocks or other assets.

Wikipedia is criticised for being unreliable and suceptible to manipulation. But say what you will about Wikipedia, if you want to get a feel for what Financial Derivatives are then take a look at this: Wikipedia - Financial Derivatives

1997 article by Cato Institute seemingly arguing for less regulation of Financial Derivatives: 10 Myths about Derivatives

Sunday, February 22, 2009

Stimulus Bill Graphic

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This was originally posted on MoveMiami's blog Transit Miami by Mike Lydon on February 20, 2009 -The Stimulus Bill Illustrated

"For those who like visual representation, like me, this graphic from the Washington Post may help you understand the architecture of the stimulus bill (Click here for the full graphic)."

Monday, February 16, 2009

Late Change in Geithner's Bank Plan

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Late Change in Course Hobbled Rollout of Geithner's Bank Plan - washingtonpost.com: "Just days before Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner was scheduled to lay out his much-anticipated plan to deal with the toxic assets imperiling the financial system, he and his team made a sudden about-face.

According to several sources involved in the deliberations, Geithner had come to the conclusion that the strategies he and his team had spent weeks working on were too expensive, too complex and too risky for taxpayers.

They needed an alternative and found it in a previously considered initiative to pair private investments and public loans to try to buy the risky assets and take them off the books of banks. There was one problem: They didn't have enough time to work out many details or consult with others before the plan was supposed to be unveiled.

The sharp course change was one of the key reasons why Geithner's plan -- his first major policy initiative as Treasury secretary -- landed with such a thud last Tuesday."

Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items

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Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items - washingtonpost.com: "'In China, during the boom, there was huge over-capacity in various lines of activity ranging from shoes and clothing, light manufacturing -- all of that stuff. So that is why from the perspective of U.S. companies, we have found it so important to be on the innovative edge,' said Harvard business professor Joseph L. Bower. 'The only way to create value is to be on the innovative, high-tech, fashion-forward side.'

If the credit crunch in the United States persists, 'companies will find it difficult to invest in technology for a while, and then once the financial markets are back on track and demand recovers, companies will find themselves in difficult position,' Comin said. 'Productivity growth will be declining for a while. They will have a hard time catching up."

Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items - washingtonpost.com

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Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items - washingtonpost.com: "Some analysts see ending the credit crunch as soon as possible as critical to preventing lasting damage. Harvard economist Diego A. Comin, in his research on Japan's decade-long bout of economic stagnation in the 1990s, found that demand stayed low long enough that businesses didn't make necessary investments. Computer adoption rates, for example, slowed, as did productivity growth. Businesses lost ground to competitors in countries such as South Korea, which made it harder for Japan to emerge from its slump.

Investing in new products and processes matters even more in highly competitive global industries plagued by over-capacity."

1.3 M Homes Too Many

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Economy Strains Under Weight of Unsold Items - washingtonpost.com:

"Harvard economist Edward Glaeser estimates that from 2002 to 2007, the country's housing stock increased by 8.65 million units, outpacing the number of new households, which increased only by 6.7 million over the same period. Taking into account a rise in the number of vacation homes, Glaeser estimates an overhang of about 1.3 million vacant units. Absorbing that excess, he said, could take an additional two years."

Friday, February 13, 2009

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "The current financial and economic crisis is difficult to appreciate, not only for the drop in elevation, but because of the swiftness of the declines. It’s been a Wile E. Coyote 12 months – straight down like a dead weight. A year ago, global equity prices were nearly twice today’s levels and recession was only a whisper on the lips of the gloomiest of economists. Today, descriptions drawing parallels to the Great Depression make it obvious that a major shift in economic growth and its historic financial model, as well as policy prescriptions for its revival, are underway. Most of the world’s connected economies and its citizens are in shock, conscious but not fully aware of the seismic shifts that will unfold in future years.

PIMCO’s thesis for several years has held that the levered global economy long ago morphed from a banking-dominated regime to one that hid behind securitized lending and structures resembling a “shadow banking” system. SIVs, hedge funds, CDOs and increasingly levered mortgage and investment banks fueled asset appreciation in all investment markets, which in turn propelled real economic growth and employment to unsustainable levels. But, with U.S. housing prices as its trigger, the delevering process did a Wile E. Coyote and headed over the cliff in"

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "The simplicity of the solution, however, is not easily achieved once deflationary momentum takes hold. Animal spirits, once dampened, are hard to reignite; “fear of fear itself” dominates greed. Under such circumstances, the benevolent hand of government is required and Keynes is reincarnated in an attempt to plug the dike via fiscal spending and imaginative monetary policies that support asset prices. PIMCO has recently been contracted to assist in several publically announced programs which have helped in that effort: the CPFF, which has benefitted commercial paper yields, and the Federal Reserve’s purchase program for agency-backed mortgage loans, which has lowered 30-year mortgage rates to 4.5% and fostered the affordability of new and secondary housing prices. These two programs, in our opinion, have been the major policy successes to date – not because of our involvement – but because they have supported and increased asset prices whose decline has been the major deflationary thrust behind the real economy. Stop asset prices from going down and with a 12-month lag, unemployment will stop going up, and President Obama’s targeted three million new jobs will have a fighting chance of being achieved."

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "But stopping the decline of asset prices can be and has been attempted in numerous, seemingly uncoordinated ways. Recapitalization of the banks has been the major thrust, in the hopes that banks would extend credit which would reinvigorate asset pricing. Those who argue strongly for a recapitalization of the banking system, however, may be missing the distinction between the banking system as we once knew it, and the “shadow banking” system that superseded it. Jim Bianco, who heads up the research tank bearing his own name, brought the difference to mind in a recently produced piece entitled, “When Will The Banks Start Lending?” His conclusion was that banks already were – lending – but it was the “shadow system” (my words) that was holding up the parade. According to his analysis, shown in Chart 1, securitization has for several years exceeded bank loans as a percentage of private credit market debt. In contrast to recent headlines, however, banks have been picking up their lending, but it has been the “shadow banks” that have faltered. That makes sense. While banks may have tightened their lending standards, fresh capital from the TARP has made it possible to make new loans. The shadow banks, however – hedge funds, investment banks, and str"

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "Stressing the importance of the shadow banks is not the same thing as suggesting that they should be next in line for government largesse and bailouts. Lord knows, the Obama Administration is not going to bail out hedge funds, CDOs, private equity firms (Cerberus?), or Donald Trump. There are levered risk takers that will be, and should be, allowed to fail. But in permitting failure, policymakers must still be cognizant of the need to support asset prices – hopefully by inducing confidence and trust in private investors, as pointed out by Robert Shiller in a recent Wall Street Journal op-ed, but if need be by the financing or purchase of assets themselves. It’s not so much that the stock market needs to go back to 10,000. That would be nice for millions of 401(k)s that have been cut in half over the past 12 months, but it is not likely. Rather, asset prices securitizing commercial real estate and credit card receivables, as well as plain old-fashioned municipal bonds, must stop going down if the real economy has any chance to revive by 2010."

PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep

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PIMCO - IO Feb 2009 Gross Beep Beep: "Example: CMBS or commercial real estate mortgage-backed securities are now priced to yield over 12% vs. 5% in recent years. As real estate financing comes due and rolls over in the next few years, it is imperative these yields return to mid-single digits if shopping centers, retail malls, and office buildings are to remain viable. How best to bring those yields down is debatable: another CPFF-like structure with self-insurance and contributed fees as its equity backstop? A generous portion of remaining TARP billions providing a reserve cushion for Federal Reserve funding? A good bank, bad (aggregator) bank structure? All three are being debated by policymakers and we should have clarity within a week’s time. But one thing is certain: an economic recovery is dependent upon commercial real estate prices stabilizing and most retail stores staying open for business in the months and years ahead."

Something Is Not Right

Saturday, March 27, 2010

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Sunday, March 15, 2009

Wednesday, March 11, 2009

Sunday, February 22, 2009

This was originally posted on MoveMiami's blog Transit Miami by Mike Lydon on February 20, 2009 -The Stimulus Bill Illustrated

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