Friday, December 19, 2008
Worldwide Bankruptcy Wave About to Hit
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Lawyer Accused of Stealing Millions
In court last week, prosecutors said their count so far put the money missing at $380 million, most of it lost by hedge funds and other investors who had bought promissory notes that were flat-out fictions.
In recent days, Dreier L.L.P., the Park Avenue law firm that Mr. Dreier founded, has been plunged into chaos. At least $35 million in escrow that was to have been held by the firm seems to be missing, the authorities say, and nearly all of its 250 lawyers are now looking for work."
Thursday, December 11, 2008
CFOs are pessimistic
According to a new study by Duke University and CFO Magazine.
Executives say they expect the recession to last for another year. They also say that earnings, capital spending and employment all will drop in 2009.
Duke says that this quarter’s study, which asked 1,275 CFOs around the world about their expectations for the economy, finds CFOs at their most pessimistic in the survey’s more than 12-year history. Some 81 percent of U.S. CFOs are more pessimistic about the economy now than they were a quarter ago, and almost 60 percent say the U.S. economy won’t recover until the fourth quarter of 2009 or later – with 39 percent saying recovery won’t start until 2010.
CFOs say employment should fall by 5 percent in the U.S. and Europe in 2009. Capital spending will fall by 10 percent in all regions.
Banks on Life Support
Image via Wikipedia
The coming tidal wave of consumers falling behind on their credit cards and other debt will keep banks in sorry shape for the next year or more, Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC Wednesday.
“The big banks are going to be on life support for at least 18 months, if not 36 months,” she said. “The big banks will not fail, but the big banks will not grow, in my opinion, for at least another two years.”
Her remarks underscore recent comments by the nation’s top bankers. Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis says he anticipates the credit card industry will experience record losses. Lewis’ predecessor Hugh McColl recently told the San Francisco Business Times that it will take time for the economy to work its way through unwinding the credit bubble. And when he says time, he’s talking years, not months.
“Individuals are over-leveraged,” he said, adding that he’s speaking as an industry observer and not on behalf of BofA (NYSE: BAC).
Monday, December 8, 2008
Fed-style QE is Printing Money
"Without making a formal announcement, the Fed has already moved to a policy that is effectively QE. While its policy objective is still the fed funds rate, the Fed's balance sheet has more than doubled over the past three months to over $2 Trillion as it has expanded its emergency lending programs, foreign currency swap lines, and open market purchases. When the Fed began creating new lending facilities last year, it financed them by selling Treasuries, thereby keeping its balance sheet from expanding.
A few months ago, the Fed ran low on Treasuries it could sell and began to expand its
balance sheet; however, it sought to soak up or sterilize this expansion through the use of a special Treasury bill program. The Treasury sold bills and deposited the proceeds in its account with the Fed, and the Fed used the proceeds to extend loans to banks based on illiquid collateral. While the Fed's balance sheet was being grossed up, the Treasury was soaking up cash through bill issuance and systemwide liquidity was unchanged.
The Treasury program is being wound down and the expansion of Fed programs is being
financed through increases in excess bank reserves. In this case, the Fed is extending the same collateralized loans, generating excess reserves, and grossing up its balance sheet without sterilizing the transaction through the Treasury facility. Thus, the Fed is currently "printing money" and the over-provision of reserves to the banking system is far beyond what would be required to meet the FOMC's target funds rate."
Help! What is Quantitative Easing?
Quantitative easing (QE) is the name given to a three-part monetary policy program implemented by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) from March 2001 to March 2006. At the outset of the program, the BOJ believed that economic conditions warranted monetary easing as drastic as is unlikely to be taken under ordinary circumstances, and therefore made the following changes to its policy strategy:
1. A switch in the operational objective of monetary policy the policy instrument from an overnight interest rate to current account balances(bank reserves plus deposits of non-bank financial intermediaries at the central bank).
2. A reduction in the overnight interest rate to zero.
3. A commitment to maintain the new procedures until y/y CPI inflation registers stably at zero percent or higher.
Virtually all developed-world central banks conduct monetary policy in the same way: by adjusting the supply of bank reserves balances in accounts commercial banks maintain at the central bank in order to target a specific short-term interest rate. The amount of reserves supplied is a passive variable in this process. Banks demand a certain quantity of reserves to meet reserve requirements plus an additional, much smaller, amount of precautionary reserves. The central bank simply meets the amount of reserves demanded at the targeted interest rate. As a result, the total amount of reserves in the banking system is, in a normal environment, very close to the level of required reserves (i.e there are very little excess reserves).
Fed Has Already Adopted Quantitative Easing
"In recent weeks, there has been a rather odd debate over whether the Fed will adopt Japanese-style quantitative easing: that is, flood the banking system with reserves to induce more lending. In our minds, the Fed has already gone well beyond anything the Japanese ever did. It has already dramatically expanded bank reserves, and unlike the Japanese, it has used these funds to intervene aggressively in many parts of the capital markets. This is quantitative easing on steroids.
If our baseline forecast is correct, it could mean a broad-based shift in the capital markets as a variety of risk aversion trades unwind. Once the markets believe policy-makers are succeeding in containing the capital markets and economic crisis, we would expect a rally in risky assets such as credit spreads and equities; a bear steepener in the treasury market, as the Fed holds down the short end and budget deficit concerns push up the long end; a weakening of the dollar as safe-haven inflows ease; and a rally in commodity markets as investors price in an eventual recovery in global demand."
Is Deflation a Risk in 2009?
The report goes on to say that although headline inflation will fall into negative territory (yr to yr) heading into fall 2009, this is primarily due to falling in energy prices. Once energy prices "find a bottom, inflation will naturally rise back to the level of core inflation. This is a case of a big fall in one relative price, not a broad-based deflation."
The report goes on to say that the real risk of deflation comes in 2010. If the unemployment rate does not come down quickly from the presumed 8% peak, core inflation will drop steadily and could pierce the lower end of the 1-2% Bernanke bands in 2010. This risk argues for continued very accommodative monetary policy for a long time to come. Presumably, the Fed will want to exit from its aggressive market interventions as quickly as the capital markets safely allow. These programs distort the capital markets, put tax dollars at risk, and should be phased out as soon as it is safe.
Friday, December 5, 2008
Morgan Stanley Ups Stake in Struggling General Growth
Image by Getty ImagesMorgan Stanley has become the second investor to take a large stake in General Growth Properties Inc., the struggling mall operator headquartered in Chicago. Morgan Stanley bought more than 13.6 million shares, upping its stake in the company from 3 percent to 5.1 percent.
General Growth’s stock price closed yesterday at 94 cents. At mid-morning today, it had risen to $1.35. Last month, Pershing Square Capital Management, a New York City-based hedge fund managed by William Ackman, bought just over 20 million shares or a 7.5 percent stake in GGP.
The Morgan Stanley move followed an agreement, reported Monday by CPN, between General Growth and a six-lender consortium to extend the maturity date for $900 million in mortgage loans on two of three General Growth malls in Las Vegas. In an attempt to raise cash, the mall operator has put both of those properties, the Fashion Show and Palazzo malls, up for sale, along with a third Las Vegas center, Grand Canal Shoppes. General Growth owes approximately $27 billion, a debt load created to finance acquisitions, including its $12.6 billion acquisition of the Rouse Co. in 2004.
See article: Morgan Stanley Ups Stake in Struggling General Growth
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Let Home Prices Fall
Image via The sooner prices are allowed to naturally fall to normal, post-bubble levels, and the sooner that houses become affordable, the sooner the economy can heal itself and start growing instead of contracting.
By way of analogy, imagine a reprise of the Dutch tulip mania of 1637. Say the price of tulip bulbs has grown handsomely in the last few years, and impressive fortunes were made by early speculators.
Bidding wars erupt, with the winners hoping to resell them the bulbs at a handsome profit months or years later. Cable TV hosts proclaim that a golden age of prosperity has dawned. Prized bulbs change hands for $1 million each, and skeptics are reviled as doomsayers.
Eventually this boom leads to a bust, as new buyers become scarce, and the price of tulip bulbs suffers a dizzying fall down to $10 each. Speculators complain to Congress. Politicians pledge to use tax dollars to purchase bulbs for $1,000 or $10,000, invoking phrases like 'stability' and 'liquidity crisis,' or offering taxpayer-backed loan guarantees to speculators.
This would sound silly for tulips, but it's close to what's happening for houses. All this will do is slow -- and not arrest -- the process of prices falling. Not eve"
Let Home Prices Fall, Declan McCullagh Says Further Government Intervention Will Do More Harm Than Good - CBS News
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Is China Heart of Slowdown?
Image by House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it."
Full article on CBS News at: China Is `Heart of Global Slowdown' as Property Slump Stalls Driver of GDP
White & Case to Undergo Major Reorganization
'The day of the brick and mortar approach to building a global law firm is over,' says chairman Hugh Verrier, who spoke about the reorganization for the first time on Tuesday in an exclusive interview with The Am Law Daily.
For a quarter century, since it took its first steps on a path to becoming a global law firm, White & Case's far-flung offices have operated as individual fiefdoms, with little directive from above on how to grow business, choose clients, or cut costs. But with 2,500 lawyers spread around the world and growing competition from other, more-focused global powers, White & Case's leaders felt a review of the business was in order, Verrier says.
See article at Am Law Daily: White & Case to Undergo Major Reorganization
Bloomberg.com: Exclusive
Image via WikipediaBarclays Dickers on Loan Waivers as European Banks Fight More Writedowns: Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Barclays Capital are staving off writedowns by propping up European companies with plummeting loan values."
Friday, November 28, 2008
Interactive Investor
ar companies rally after FT report on GM:
Shares of car companies rallied on Friday after the Financial Times reported that General Motors asked real estate agent Jones Lang LaSalle for help in raising up to $257 million from the sale and leaseback from some of its European offices and property assets.
Shares of GM, a Dow component, were up 10 percent to $5.30 while Ford Motor shares surged 25 percent to $2.68. The Dow Jones U.S. Automobile Index surged 12 percent to 48.45."
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Citigroup deal could be template
NEW YORK — The latest bailout of Citigroup (C) helped soothe financial markets Monday and could serve as a model for other U.S. banks looking for help with their large portfolios of toxic assets.
The U.S. government late Sunday offered $20 billion for Citi preferred stock, on top of the $25 billion it has already given the bank. But this time, the government also said it will assume 90% of losses from Citi's $306 billion portfolio of loans related to bad mortgages if the losses exceed $29 billion, in return for another $7 billion in Citi preferred stock.
The news boosted Citi shares 58% to $5.95, helped lift other battered financial stocks and triggered a broad market rally Monday in which the Dow Jones industrials surged 397 points to 8443.
NEW YORK — The latest bailout of Citigroup (C) helped soothe financial markets Monday and could serve as a model for other U.S. banks looking for help with their large portfolios of toxic assets.
The U.S. government late Sunday offered $20 billion for Citi preferred stock, on top of the $25 billion it has already given the bank. But this time, the government also said it will assume 90% of losses from Citi's $306 billion portfolio of loans related to bad mortgages if the losses exceed $29 billion, in return for another $7 billion in Citi preferred stock.
The news boosted Citi shares 58% to $5.95, helped lift other battered financial stocks and triggered a broad market rally Monday in which the Dow Jones industrials surged 397 points to 8443.
Analysts say the backstop was essential to calm investors worried that the values of U.S. bank portfolios have been getting worse each passing month. "Persistent downward pressure on valuations of residential mortgage assets are being compounded by falling valuations of commercial real estate and other assets," says Brian Bethune at IHS Global Insight.
Any bank with similar toxic assets in their portfolio now has a chance to ask the government for similar cover. "Bank of America (BAC) can use this template to reduce the risk on Merrill's (MER) portfolio before they close the deal," says Cassandra Toroian, chief investment officer at Bell Rock Capital. BofA declined comment.
For the government, this is a way to stretch the fast-dwindling cash available from the $700 billion bailout fund. "It enables the government to leverage taxpayers' money better," says Keith Davis, financial analyst at Farr Miller & Washington. "This way, you can avoid buying up bad assets, and hopefully not have to bear losses unless the situation worsens."
For the banks, analysts say, this could calm investors by putting a floor on losses from the bad assets. Also, it's like an insurance policy, which the banks might never need to access, Bethune says.
This marked another reversal for the government, which two weeks ago said it would not take any action related to toxic assets, as it had planned, and instead would invest directly in the banks. That news sent financial stocks tumbling. Citi was especially hard hit, falling 60% to $3.77 last week, prompting the bank to ask for more federal help. Now, "If the investors start to go after Goldman (Sachs) (GS) or Morgan Stanley, (MS) you can see them, too, ask for similar government guarantees," Davis says. Goldman and Morgan declined comment.
Monday, November 24, 2008
Blackstone loses $500 million
Like just about all other private equity firms, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) reported a horrible Q3, with losses of $502.5 million, or $0.44 per share. However, the firm was fairly optimistic on the overall value of its sprawling portfolio of companies. That is, the writedown was only about 7%. As a result, some investors were naturally skeptical – and the stock price of Blackstone continued to slide."
See article at: BloggingBuyouts
Citi's 'slow, grudging nationalization
Image via WikipediaCan Citigroup survive? - Nov. 24, 2008: "Citi's 'slow, grudging nationalization'
Monday's massive rescue package hasn't solved Citigroup's problems, says bank analyst Christopher Whalen.
(from Fortune Magazine) -- In just a few days Citigroup went from trouble to trauma as its stock price plunged amid sweeping layoffs and deep losses on some of its more esoteric assets. When news reports swirled that the megabank was considering a sale of part or all of the company, it was clear that Citi was singing from the same hymnbook as firms like Lehman Brothers, Wachovia and AIG had before they fell. The public's only question: What would the end game look like?
Now we have our answer - a government agreement to shoulder hundreds of billions of dollars in possible losses and inject billions of dollars into the bank. FORTUNE checked in with bank analyst Christopher Whalen, co-founder of Institutional Risk Analytics and a prescient critic of Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) since 2003, when he said its riskier, higher-return strategy made it more vulnerable than its banking peers.
Here are some excerpts. This one is well worth a read of the full article.
Fortune:
Does this plan solve Citi's problems?
Whalen: This does nothing more than temper the problem, but, no, it hasn't solved anything.
Fortune:
How does this rescue plan differ from the other bailouts we've seen in the past few months?
Whalen: The accurate term for what the government has done is "open bank assistance." It's similar to what the FDIC had to do when it was clear that Wachovia could no longer go on, except there is not a ready buyer in this case. The other big financial institutions have had parties willing to pick up the assets, but you won't see that with Citi. This bailout is more like a resolution. That means that the government essentially has to take control of Citicorp and become more and more involved with its operations until the bank ultimately is nationalized.
Home Sales Fall, Record Drop in Prices
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Home resales in the U.S. dropped in October and prices fell by the most on record, signaling a deepening housing recession going into 2009.
Purchases of existing homes slid to an annual rate of 4.98 million, lower than forecast, a National Association of Realtors report showed in Washington. The median price fell 11.3 percent from a year earlier, the most since the group began collecting data in 1968.
Today’s figures indicate a renewed downturn in an industry that showed signs of stabilizing this year, hurt by the credit squeeze and record mortgage foreclosures. That may raise pressure on President-elect Barack Obama to aid homeowners and potential buyers as he assembles a record stimulus package.
“Home sales will continue to fall over the next few months because of tightening credit conditions,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, which had the closest estimate for the sales level among 67 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. “Underlying demand appears very weak” because “many sales are coming from cheap prices on foreclosed properties,” he added."
Goldman to Sell Bonds in First FDIC-Backed Offering
By John Detrixhe and Gabrielle Coppola
Nov. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the biggest U.S. securities firm to convert to a bank, plans to sell notes in the first offering of debt backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., according to a person with knowledge of the transaction.
Goldman is leading banks in what analysts said may be a wave of as much as $600 billion of government-guaranteed issuance. Goldman’s benchmark sale may price as soon as tomorrow, said the person, who declined to be identified because terms aren’t set. Benchmark size typically means at least $500 million.
The government guarantee opens a new channel for bank funding after the credit seizure sapped demand for financial debt and sent yields to record highs of 7.24 percentage points above Treasuries. Banks, which haven’t sold dollar-denominated bonds since September, may raise $400 billion to $600 billion under the program within six months, Barclays Capital estimated in October."
Bailout Funding Sources
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?pid=avimage&iid=i0YrUuvkygWs
U.S. Pledges Top $7.7 Trillion to Ease Frozen Credit
The unprecedented pledge of funds includes $3.18 trillion already tapped by financial institutions in the biggest response to an economic emergency since the New Deal of the 1930s, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The commitment dwarfs the plan approved by lawmakers, the Treasury Department’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. Federal Reserve lending last week was 1,900 times the weekly average for the three years before the crisis."
The important thing to note at this time is that the $700B TARP bailout is just the tip of the iceberg. Keep an eye on this story updates. The writers, Bloomberg's Mark Pittman and Bob Ivry, seem to have a good feel for these complex issues.
Recession’s Grip Forces U.S. to Flood World With More Dollars
In an all-out assault on capitalism’s worst crisis since the Great Depression, the U.S. is taking on the role of both lender and borrower of last resort for the global economy.
The Federal Reserve, which has already pumped out hundreds of billions of dollars, might formally adopt a policy of flooding the world financial system with even more money. The Treasury, on course to borrow some $1.5 trillion this fiscal year, may tap global capital markets for even more to finance a fiscal stimulus package of as much as $700 billion and provide additional bailout money for banks.
“You want to do everything you can when you’re facing the threat of a deflationary breakdown of the economy,” says Michael Feroli, a former Fed official who is now an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York."
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Thomas Friedman: What we can do
Friday, November 7, 2008
Is Laissez-faire dead?
"The Western financial system, as we know it, is dead. Not tarnished or cracked. Dead. With its demise go the Anglo laissez-faire financial mechanisms of the Reagan-Thatcher-Kohl era that have held sway for nearly three decades. The American subset, affectionately referred to as “the cowboy experiment,” run by self-centered eccentrics, is at the root of this collapse. After all, New York, not London, had been the creator of new financial products, strategies and entities. We were the innovators. Leverage was the tool. And greed was the measure of success."
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Hedge Fund Redemption
Hedge funds may be forced to dispose of half their $135 billion in high-yield loans to fund redemptions, Stephen Antczak, a UBS credit analyst in Stamford, Connecticut, wrote in an Oct. 10 report to clients. That may send loan prices as low as 60 cents, he said.
``The de-leveraging that we're witnessing will probably continue,'' said Paul Scanlon, team leader for U.S. high yield and bank loans at Boston-based Putnam Investments LLC, which manages $55 billion in fixed income. ``My sense is that's not turning around in the very near term.''
See full article at: Bloomberg.com: Exclusive:
Bloomberg.com: Exclusive
For buyers to lose money on some top-rated bonds backed by mortgages on offices, hotels, apartment buildings and other commercial properties, the circumstances would have to surpass the worst conditions on record, according to Darrell Wheeler, global head of securitized strategy at Citigroup Inc."
Bloomberg.com: Exclusive
``We're not at these prices because of the fundamentals: We threw those out the window a year ago,'' he said. ``This is strictly people want to sell something to raise cash, and it's easy to sell these CMBS because it's a liquid market.''
Yields on AAA commercial mortgage bonds were at a record 620.7 basis points over benchmark swap rates on Oct. 15, up from 47.8 basis points a year ago, according to Bank of America Corp. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point."
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Bloomberg.com: Economy
The central bank will provide dollars at fixed interest rates for an ``unlimited amount against pooled collateral,'' it said in a statement late yesterday. It also announced measures to improve companies' access to cash, expanded the range of Japanese government bonds it accepts from lenders, and suspended a program of selling shares it bought from banks between 2002 and 2004.
The Bank of Japan's supply of dollars comes from a swap agreement with the U.S. Federal Reserve. Last month the two central banks agreed to swap as much as $120 billion for yen. The increase to unlimited dollar supply came a day after the Fed removed caps on swap lines with the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank."
Bloomberg.com: Economy
``Leaving businesses and consumers without access to financing is totally unacceptable,'' Paulson said in Washington. He rolled out the emergency program after a crisis of confidence in the financial system last week spurred the biggest stock sell- off since 1933. Paulson told companies getting the government funds to ``deploy'' the money in loans.
The Treasury chief was forced to change tack from an initial plan to buy distressed assets from banks after the financial panic caused banks to hoard cash and send money market rates to record levels. In its biggest effort yet to halt the 14-month credit rout, officials will also offer guarantees on new bank debts and start purchasing commercial paper in two weeks."